The FOMO Menace: My Battle with the IPS

I have admitted a few times the sins of my investing past. Today’s post is another one of those “confessions”—the kind where I describe exactly what I should do, while simultaneously struggling to actually do it. For any new Padawans joining the journey, you can click on my previous moments of weakness here:

 A few weeks back, I sat down to write my IPS. In the world of finance, that stands for Investment Policy Statement.

Think of it as a “Business Plan” for your money. It’s a formal document that outlines the rules of the game for your portfolio. Its purpose is to hold your hand during times of severe market volatility. When the crap is hitting the fan, you read it to remind yourself why you invest the way you do. It can even advise you on what to buy during a downturn.

Think of it as a blueprint for the thermal exhaust port map on your Death Star. It outlines the specific weaknesses you are trying to protect. The goal is to ensure one lucky shot from an emotional impulse doesn’t blow the whole thing up.

Since I don’t use a financial advisor (I can hear a few of you screaming at me already), the IPS is my only anchor. I struggle mightily to have faith that the market always goes “up and to the right.” The “Lost Decade” of the early 2000s scarred me deeply. Retiring into a market like that scares the absolute bejesus out of me.

An advisor would just tell me what I already know I should do. 60/40. 50/50. Bucket approach. Pick one.

They would be there to help talk me off a ledge, sure. But at the end of the day, it’s still my decision. Paying someone to move the pieces is no different than me doing it myself—I still have to sign on the dotted line.

I need a psychiatrist, not an investment advisor. The Dark Side is strong in this one.

I digress.

Why the IPS?

Without an IPS, Vader is a dangerously emotional investor on both the up and the down. When the market dips, the Dark Side whispers “Panic Sell.” When a trendy tech stock rips, it whispers “Performance Chasing.” The IPS is supposed to be my Jedi Code, my anchor—ensuring every decision aligns with long-term goals rather than short-term impulses.

But writing it? That was easy. But I struggle to stick to it.

The goal is easy: 5% return, tax-advantaged. Done. Simple. My nature is to Protect the Precious (the nest egg). We don’t need to conquer the galaxy; Padme’s some day pension means a 4% to 5% return is all we need to retire. Why risk the fleet chasing larger returns? Why keep playing the game if you have already won.

But I have a hard time with that goal because of:

The FOMO Menace

But then… the market goes on a huge tear. ( FOMO = Fear of Missing Out)

  • 2020: +18.4% (during a pandemic?!)
  • 2021: +28.7%
  • 2022: -18%
  • 2023: +26%
  • 2024: +25%

I made my 4% or 5% each year. I technically hit my goal over the last five years. But I’m looking at a 27% personal gain vs. a market benchmark of nearly 100%.

Holy $%#^. (Insert many more colorful, non-Jedi words here).

FOMO hits, and it hits hard. When I see those numbers, I want to forget my conservative nature and put it all on black. Or Nvidia. Or Tesla—the stock I love to hate, but one that is still way, way up on a five-year chart.

Vader = Idiot. Just. Get. In. More. In Anything. Bonus points if it’s the index.

The News is a Trap

My attitude over the last seven years has been “Protect the Precious” instead of “Grow the Empire.” If I had just let go of the fear, the “Precious” would be PRECIOUS by now.

But the news sways me. If you read investing clickbait every day, Doom is always just around the corner. It started for me in 2017 with the volatility of the US election. The talking heads promised a collapse, I couldn’t ride through it, and my returns suffered. Don’t always believe what you hear.

Now, the doom-meter is cranked past 11. AI bubbles, Software stocks collapsing, layoff due to AI coming soon, tariff hell, global wars, no Valentine’s Day present—there is always a Death Star on the horizon.

I cut my investment “teeth” in the 2000 bubble. I watched the money disappear and realized the S&P didn’t surpass that peak until 2014. Fourteen years. That’s the “Nuclear Winter” I’m trying to protect against as I approach retirement. It’s likely stupid. The odds are 99.9% against it. But I treat it like roulette, fearing that one event that sinks us for a decade.

As the market approaches new highs, I freeze. I know it’s always at new highs because it’s always going up, but when it goes down, buying the dip isn’t any easier.

I think I’m okay being a conservative investor until FOMO takes over. The emotional side—the Dark Side—is angry and itching to jump in just as we touch these peaks. But the Dark Side is fueled more by fear than anger. In this case, I actually need the anger to win so I’ll finally invest more aggressively. To make my IPS more aggressive.

I need to figure out the portion I don’t need for five years, close my eyes, and just put it in the market. If I had just done that any time in the last five years, I’d be miles ahead. Just Dollar Cost Average. Pick six months, hell, pick a year, and just spread it out.

So, do I chase the returns or stick to my nice, boring 5%? My brain says the 5% is fine, but man, my emotions want to party with everyone else.

The stopped clock waits. 4 to 5% it is. Now, where is that IPS? Maybe if I pair it with an IPA or two, I can finally get through this.

The S&P for the first time in a while has a been almost flat for a month or two. As usual it feels weird.

All downhill from here? Or is it?

4 responses to “The FOMO Menace: My Battle with the IPS”

  1. Tech Avatar
    Tech

    Back in 2016 I wrote my first IPS and converted to index investing instead of stock picking. Ten years later all the goals I had listed were met.

    My IPS also had a statement about not timing the market but that is the one I always battle with anytime I have a bulk amount of money to put in the market. I sometimes wait on the sidelines for months waiting for a dip. In hindsight if I would have just bought at market price the day I first had the money I would have done as well or better but there is just something about trying to get a deal that has me doing this over and over again. 😛

    The only other time I went off script was during the pandemic. Working in IT and having to keep everything working and setting up all the remote work or special projects I was working crazy amounts of overtime. With all this extra money I bought a banking stock which was paying out 7% dividends and was at a record low. I did end up selling after a year or so making ~40% gains and investing it all back according to my IPS.

    With the financial goals exceeded, my FIRE date happening this year (two years passed my original planned date) I have reviewed my IPS and thought about changing it. Maybe adjusting my asset allocation and also include a withdrawal plan to melt down my registered accounts. So far I have just stayed the course the great thing about being FI is the ability to have a bunch of options and choices. I have had to prevent myself from trying get to come up with the perfect most tax efficient plan. Just as my index investing with average returns over the long run got me to my goals the withdrawal plans and flexibility should allow for me to focus on the non-money parts of retirement. Health, family and happiness! I also have to battle with not being too frugal or cheap.

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    1. VaderonFire Avatar

      Making the right decision over 5 years ago I don’t stress about. Its the decision today that causes stress. Once you have lived through a few bull years with the decision behind you it makes it easier to maintain. I am slowly upping my equity allocation this year

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  2. Reader_Of_Writers Avatar
    Reader_Of_Writers

    Oh I feel your pain of the indecision on where to go from here. I’ve remained index fund invested throughout this market tear we’ve been on. I was “safely” positioned at 70/30 Equity/Bonds. This has moved to 80/20 given the run up. I’m approaching retirement (4 years out) and would be happy to be at my current net worth so a big pullback scares me. Not to mention the potential for another lost decade.

    Do I follow Berkshire’s approach and move to cash, in preparation for the big pullback? Would I even have the guts and ability to recognize the bottom and jump back in to take advantage of it? Missing only a few of the “big up” days kills your returns. Do I take some chips off the table now building a cash reserve to get me though the first 5 years of retirement in case there’s a market selloff?

    I’ve recently been listening to and learning about the concept of Risk Parity portfolios. A bit more diversified than your typical 60/40 split. It’s giving me additional options to consider. Adding to my analysis paralysis. Check out the Risk Parity Radio podcast for more info.

    Oh, and to close out the thoughts above on indecision, I’m still 80/20. And every time the market has a 700-800 point drop I think “now’s the time to reallocate! Move to cash!” And then it recovers and I ignore it again until the next big drop.

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    1. VaderonFire Avatar

      I listen to Risk Parity Radio. Fantastic podcast and I highly recommend for the humor and the investing. I know I am in the minority with needed to up my equity allocation which I will do over time. Did some yesterday actually. But more to go.

      Its funny as you get to your target how you almost protect it more vs letting loose

      Liked by 1 person

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Welcome to my corner of the Empire. Here you find my struggle to give up the Dark Side and finally Retire from force choking coworkers. Got to say I will miss that some day